British screenwriter Jesse Armstrong, whose credits include "The Thick of It" and "Succession," frequently employs humor and self-loathing in his work. One of his well-known quotations highlights the pointlessness and difficulty of having strong beliefs, especially when it comes to complex issues like political policies.

Armstrong makes a comparison between developing opinions and creating a comprehensive policy for the Balkans in the mid-1990s. Conflicts between different countries and ethnic groups in southeast Europe characterized this extremely complex time period. The situation's complexity and unpredictability show how difficult it is to forecast results or feel confident about the potential influence of one's opinions.

Armstrong then humorously compares this to his own career goals, stating that many people find it difficult to see their personal beliefs making a big difference, just as he couldn't imagine having a significant impact on political change. In order to illustrate how unrealistic it might be for someone to think they can simply move from one field to another of greater influence, he compares the Foreign Office to the British wine chain Oddbins.

This quotation serves as a reminder that although it is normal for people to form opinions, the influence that we may hope those opinions will have on important issues or our own lives can frequently seem unattainable. Like attempting to forecast the weather, you base your judgment on the information at hand, but no matter how knowledgeable you are, there will always be some degree of uncertainty.

Armstrong is essentially saying that although having opinions is acceptable and even healthy, being aware of their limitations can help avoid needless annoyance or disappointment. His lighthearted perspective captures a larger reality about the intricacies of contemporary life, where influence and change aren't always clear-cut.